Why do so few autistic pupils reach Bachillerato? Spain's education funnel in the data

Spain has 107,977 autistic pupils in non-university education: 1.30% of all pupils, and more than a third of all students with specific educational support needs. The recorded figure has risen by 467.6% over fourteen years, reflecting a substantial increase in the identification and recording of autistic pupils. 85.44% are educated in mainstream settings.

With numbers like these, you would expect autistic pupils' presence to remain stable across the school stages. But that is not what the data show. Instead, a clear funnel-shaped pattern emerges.

The funnel, stage by stage

The Ministry of Education data analysed by Confederación Autismo España show a sharp fall in representation at later stages. In the 2024–2025 school year, autistic pupils represented 1.56% of all primary pupils in mainstream education and 1.09% of pupils in compulsory secondary education (ESO). In Bachillerato — Spain's two-year academic upper secondary stage — the proportion fell to 0.44%. Seen from the other side: only 3.38% of autistic pupils are enrolled in Bachillerato, and 4.06% are enrolled in some form of vocational training (Formación Profesional). No equivalent nationwide data are available for university education.

Confederación Autismo España notes that this low representation may be related to educational underachievement and early school leaving, as well as an inadequate response from the education system. The aggregate figures do not follow individual pupils and cannot establish one cause. They do justify asking whether support continues after compulsory education and how many pupils change route or leave education.

What happens at 16

Specialist organisations point to the same causes with remarkable consistency: the system tends to assume that support is no longer needed in the upper stages; specialist support units do not always continue into secondary and post-compulsory education; there are barriers in entrance assessments; and there is a serious shortage of vocational guidance adapted to autistic pupils' needs. The post-compulsory stages require greater independence, organisation and management of social demands, at exactly the moment when the resources that had supported the pupil are reduced or withdrawn.

The pupils most easily overlooked: those with less visible support needs

There is a widespread belief in parts of the education system: that autistic pupils with level 1 support needs require nothing, because they pass their exams, cause no trouble in class and appear to be fine. The available evidence challenges that assumption, although it should be said precisely: the figures that follow are not broken down by support level.

On anxiety: 39.6% of autistic children and adolescents meet the criteria for at least one anxiety disorder, according to a widely cited meta-analysis (van Steensel et al., 2011). Anxiety may not always be visible in the classroom, particularly when a pupil is making a sustained effort to appear to be coping — and that effort is exhausting.

On relationships: 63% of autistic pupils have experienced bullying according to the studies compiled by Autismo España, and the figure rises to around 83% when there is no co-occurring intellectual disability. The studies distinguish by the presence or absence of intellectual disability, not by support level, but the pattern is telling: autistic pupils without a co-occurring intellectual disability may be at particularly high risk of bullying, despite sometimes being perceived as having fewer visible support needs.

And on support: the underrepresentation of autistic pupils in Bachillerato is consistent with concerns about support being reduced at later stages, but the available figures do not isolate pupils with level 1 support needs or establish a single cause. The risk that specialist organisations describe is well known: a pupil who passes and causes no trouble may receive less support precisely because their effort convinces everyone that they are fine.

The other gap: no autism-specific completion data

One point of honesty about the data: Spain has no official statistic showing how many autistic pupils complete primary school, ESO or Bachillerato. What the data provide is a snapshot of autistic pupils' presence at each educational stage. The resulting funnel is indirect evidence, not a direct measure of individual dropout. That a group facing some of the highest reported levels of bullying and a significant risk of early school leaving has no completion statistic of its own is, in itself, part of the problem.

What a family can ask for at every change of stage

Make three specific requests in writing: that recognised measures are recorded and communicated to the receiving setting; that the transition is prepared before the current stage ends; and that the school explains which adjustments can apply in Bachillerato, vocational education or entrance examinations. Extra time, rest breaks and adapted formats depend on individual assessment and the rules for each examination; they are not granted automatically on the basis of a diagnosis.

The funnel is not inevitable. Written requests can help ensure that support needs are formally considered and followed through at each transition, but responsibility for providing appropriate support remains with the education system.